Hagen Financial Network, Inc.: March 2016

Monday, March 28, 2016

IF YOU COULD LIVE ANYWHERE, WHERE WOULD YOU LIVE?

PEEK OF THE WEEK

March 28, 2016

The Markets

Are corporations in the United States struggling?

In its cover article last week, The Economist (a British publication), suggested there is not enough competition among American companies. It pointed out:

“Aggregate domestic profits are at near-record levels relative to GDP… High profits might be a sign of brilliant innovations or wise long-term investments were it not for the fact that they are also suspiciously persistent. A very profitable American firm has an 80 percent chance of being that way 10 years later. In the 1990s the odds were only about 50 percent.”

At the end of last week, U.S. headlines indicated concern about declining corporate profits:

Consumers prop up U.S. economy, but profits under pressure
U.S. Fourth-Quarter GDP Revised Up to 1.4% Growth but Corporate Profits Fall
Corporate profits fall in 2015 for first time since Great Recession
U.S. Corporate Profits Fall 8.1% in 4th Quarter

So, are U.S. companies experiencing record profits or are they in trouble?

Last week’s press release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated corporate profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) declined from the third quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2015; hence, the headlines.

However, a one-quarter decline doesn’t provide a complete picture of the health of corporate America. As CFO.com pointed out, over the full year, corporate profits were up 3.3 percent year-to-year.

Trading Economics offered additional context. From 1950 through 2015, U.S. corporate profits averaged about $395 billion annually. Profits hit a record low for that period, $14 billion, during the first quarter of 1951. Profits rose to an all-time high of about $1.64 trillion during the third quarter of 2014.

Fourth quarter’s profits of $1.38 trillion remain well above that average.

If you could live anywhere, where would you live? If cities are your cup of tea, then here is some good news. The 2016 Worldwide Cost of Living Report compares the prices of 160 products and services – from food and drink to domestic care and private schools – in cities around the world. It found the cost-of-living in many cities fell during 2015 thanks to lower commodity prices, weakening currencies, and geopolitical unrest.

Be warned: a lower cost-of-living doesn’t mean a city offers good value. Take Zurich, for instance. Remember the uproar when the Swiss unpegged their currency early in 2015? The Swiss franc realized double-digit gains, the Swiss stock market swooned, and the Swiss people went shopping in neighboring countries. Well, the cost of living in Zurich fell from September 2014 to September 2015, but the decline wasn’t proportionate to declines elsewhere in Europe, and Zurich currently reigns as Europe’s most expensive city.

In September 2015, the most and least expensive cities in the world were:

Most expensive:

Republic of Singapore
Zurich, Switzerland
Hong Kong, China
Geneva, Switzerland
Paris, France

Least expensive:

Chennai, India
Karachi, Pakistan
Mumbai, India
Bangalore, India
Lusaka, Gambia

Cities in the United States didn’t fare well, either. A strong U.S. dollar helped push all 16 of the U.S. cities that were in the survey up at least 15 places. New York and Los Angeles both rank among the 10 most expensive cities in the world.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“The first step in the evolution of ethics is a sense of solidarity with other human beings.”

--Albert Schweitzer, Winner of the Nobel Peace Prize

Best regards,

Leif M. Hagen

Leif M. Hagen,
CLU, ChFC

LP Financial Advisor

Securities offered through LPL Financial Inc.,

Member FINRA/SIPC.

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* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be

representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees,

expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S.

Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.

The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* You cannot invest directly in an index.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

* To unsubscribe from the “Peek of the Week”, please reply to this email with “Unsubscribe” in the subject line, or write us at: Hagen Financial Network, Inc. 4640 Nicols Road, Suite 203; Eagan, MN 55122.

Sources:

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21695392-big-firms-united-states-have-never-had-it-so-good-time-more-competition-problem (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-28-16_TheEconomist-The_Problem_with_Profits-Footnote_1.pdf)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN0WR0YL

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-fourth-quarter-gdp-revised-up-corporate-profits-fall-1458909252 (see Headline)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4th-quarter-gdp-raised-to-14-but-corporate-profits-sink-2016-03-25

http://ww2.cfo.com/the-economy/2016/03/u-s-corporate-profits-fall-8-1-4th-quarter/

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2016/gdp4q15_3rd.htm

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/corporate-profits

http://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=WCOL2016 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-28-16_TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit-Worldwide_Cost_of_Living_Report_2016-Footnote_8.pdf)

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2015/01/currencies (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-28-16_TheEconomist-Going_Cuckoo_for_the_Swiss-Footnote_9.pdf)

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21640366-swiss-are-feeling-shocked-and-discombobulated-their-central-bank-shaken-not-stirred (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-28-16_TheEconomist-Shaken_not_Stirred-Footnote_10.pdf)

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/03/daily-chart-4 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-28-16_TheEconomist-Worldwide_Cost_of_Living_Survey-Footnote_11.pdf)

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/albertschw132789.html?src=t_ethics

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Monday, March 21, 2016

The Economist reported there are two issues efficient market theorists have trouble explaining and more...

Peek of the Week

March 21, 2016

The Markets

There is ongoing debate about whether markets behave in rational ways.

The efficient market hypothesis suggests it’s impossible to outperform the stock market because current share prices reflect all relevant information. In other words, stocks should always trade at fair value and it should be impossible to invest in a stock that is overpriced or underpriced.

. The first is market bubbles, “where entire markets get out of whack with traditional valuation measures and then collapse.” The other is pricing anomalies. For instance, value stocks are inexpensive relative to their asset values and tend to outperform over the long term. In a perfect market, pricing anomalies shouldn’t occur.

During the past few weeks, U.S. stock markets have recovered from losses suffered earlier in the year and moved into positive territory for 2016. The shift into positive territory has some suggesting markets may not be correctly priced, but there is disagreement about whether it currently is overvalued or undervalued.

According to Barron’s, the recent strong performance of U.S. stock markets hasn’t been inspired by sound decisions and rational economic behavior. “The market’s valuation, at 17 times consensus analyst earnings-per-share estimates for 2016, looks stretched again, given that easy monetary policy and rising oil prices – not earnings growth – are responsible.”

Wharton Professor of Finance Jeremy Siegel disagreed. “On an absolute basis [the stock market is] slightly more highly valued than average but relative to interest rates, which are extremely low, it is actually undervalued in my opinion.”

Investors who believe markets perform well most of the time, but not all of the time, may want to take opportunities like these to look for companies whose shares may be mispriced, as well.

Data as of 3/18/16	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)	1.4%	0.3%	-2.4%	9.7%	9.9%	4.6%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.	1.6	-1.0	-11.0	-1.6	-0.9	-0.3
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)	1.9	NA	2.0	2.0	3.3	4.7
Gold (per ounce)	-1.0	17.9	9.1	-7.9	-2.5	8.5
Bloomberg Commodity Index	1.0	2.8	-17.8	-16.3	-13.3	-6.6
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index	2.2	4.0	2.4	9.8	11.8	6.3

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Here’s a milestone you don’t reach until your seventies. The major milestones of older Americans are not attended with the same sense of wonder that accompanies the major milestones of younger Americans. Sure, registering for Social Security benefits and signing up for Medicare are rites of passage, but they don’t hold a candle to earning your driver’s license, receiving your first kiss, winning your first promotion, or dancing at your wedding.

If you have retirement accounts when you become a septuagenarian, then you’ll encounter a milestone the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) strongly encourages you to remember. Beginning April 1 of the year following the year in which you reach age 70½, you must begin taking required minimum distributions (RMDs) from most of your retirement accounts. Forbes offered this list:

Traditional IRAs
Rollover IRAs
Inherited IRAs
SEP IRAs
SIMPLE IRAs
401(k), 403(b), and 457(b) plan accounts
Keogh plans

There currently are no RMDs for Roth IRAs, unless the accounts were inherited.

If you have more than one qualifying retirement account, then a separate RMD must be calculated for each account. If you want to withdraw a portion of each account, you can, but it may prove simpler to take the entire amount due from a single account. Once you start, you must take RMDs by December 31 every year. If you don’t, you’ll owe some hefty penalty taxes.

The IRS offers some instructions for calculating the RMD due. “The required minimum distribution for any year is the account balance as of the end of the immediately preceding calendar year divided by a distribution period from the IRS’ “Uniform Lifetime Table.” A separate table is used if the sole beneficiary is the owner’s spouse who is ten or more years younger than the owner.”

If you would prefer to have some help figuring out the correct amount when RMDs are due, contact your financial professional.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“It wasn't by accident that the Gettysburg address was so short. The laws of prose writing are as immutable as those of flight, of mathematics, of physics.”

--Ernest Hemingway, American writer

Best regards,

Leif M. Hagen

Leif M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC