Peek of the Week
November 9, 2015
The
Markets
And, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said…
U.S. job growth surpassed expectations in October.
About 271,000 jobs were created across diverse industries: professional and
business services, health care, retail, construction, and others. That was a significantly higher number than
predicted by economists who participated in a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal. They expected
to see 183,000 new jobs for October.
The BLS revised August and September jobs numbers
higher overall and reported improvement on the wage front, too. Average hourly
earnings increased by nine cents during October. For the year, hourly earnings
are up 2.5 percent. Rising wages and a 5 percent unemployment rate “appear to
indicate the labor market has reached full employment,” reported Barron’s.
Strong employment data supports the idea the Fed will
begin to lift the Fed funds rate this year. On Friday, former Chairman of the Federal
Reserve Ben Bernanke wrote in his blog:
“Wednesday was something of a trifecta for Fed
watchers: Chair Yellen, Board Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, and Federal Reserve
Bank of New York president Bill Dudley (who is also the vice chair of the
Federal Open Market Committee) all made public appearances. Moreover, the
comments by all three members of the Fed’s leadership explicitly or implicitly
supported the idea that a December rate increase by the FOMC is a distinct
possibility. (The possibility of a rate increase is even more distinct with
this morning’s strong job market report.)”
Markets responded swiftly, according to The Wall Street Journal, as investors
repositioned their portfolios in anticipation of a rate hike. While stock
market indices remained relatively steady, there was considerable volatility within
certain sectors. An expert cited by the publication commented:
“…one of the big rotation trades on Friday was
investors taking money out of companies such as utilities and
real-estate-investment trusts, and putting it into those that are expected to
benefit from higher rates, such as financial companies.”
Data as of 11/6/15
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
Standard &
Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
1.0%
|
2.0%
|
3.4%
|
13.7%
|
11.4%
|
5.6%
|
Dow Jones Global
ex-U.S.
|
-1.0
|
-4.2
|
-5.6
|
2.4
|
-0.4
|
1.5
|
10-year Treasury
Note (Yield Only)
|
2.3
|
NA
|
2.4
|
1.7
|
2.6
|
4.6
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
-4.7
|
-9.2
|
-4.9
|
-13.7
|
-4.8
|
9.1
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
-2.5
|
-18.3
|
-27.1
|
-15.7
|
-11.1
|
-6.5
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index
|
-1.9
|
-0.3
|
3.1
|
10.4
|
10.6
|
7.6
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg
Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a
dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ
Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the
three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury
Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time
periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com,
London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not
applicable.
it wasn’t just about the budget. Last week, the bipartisan budget bill was signed into law, averting a
U.S. default and deferring further battle over debt and spending levels until
presidential and congressional elections are over, according to U.S. News & World Report.
The new law includes
provisions that CBS Money Watch said
are likely to strengthen Social Security and Medicare by improving the
programs’ finances. Since the provisions also have the potential to reduce
benefits for some Americans, they may not prove to be all that popular. Here
are two of the changes that affect Social Security benefits:
·
File-and-suspend strategies will be limited
in 2016. This change could cost some Americans up to $50,000 in lifetime
Social Security benefits, according to PBS
News Hour. The strategy entails having a husband or wife file for Social
Security benefits at full retirement age and then suspend the benefits
immediately. This allows a spouse to claim a spousal benefit, while the husband
or wife receives delayed retirement credits.
Effective
May 1, 2016, no one will be able to voluntarily file and suspend benefits to make
a spousal benefit available to a spouse or to protect the right to file for
retroactive benefits.
·
Restricted application strategies will not be an
option after 2015. Restricted
application also is a Social Security claiming strategy. It allows an applicant
to receive spousal benefits while earning delayed retirement credits until age
70. Americans who meet age requirements in 2015 can employ the strategy;
younger Americans cannot.
If you are currently employing
these strategies, you are probably grandfathered. We’ll know more when the
Social Security Administration offers some insight as to how the new rules will
be interpreted. That’s expected to happen before the end of the year. In the
meantime, if you have questions about how this may affect your retirement
plans, please contact your financial advisor.
Weekly Focus –
Think About It
“The easiest thing to be in the world is you. The most
difficult thing to be is what other people want you to be. Don't let them put
you in that position.”
--Leo Buscaglia, American
author and motivational speaker
Best
regards,
Leif M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC
LP Financial Advisor
Securities
offered through LPL Financial Inc.,
Member
FINRA/SIPC.
P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues.
If you would like us to add
them to our list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we
will ask for their permission to be added.
P.S.S. Also,
please remind your friends and family members becoming Medicare eligible that
we offer Medicare insurance and Part D options with NO COST to work with Leif as
their agent
For more information and resources visit our website at www.HagenFN.com
For more information and resources visit our website at www.HagenFN.com
For Medicare supplement and part D information and
resources, please visit MEDICAREforSENIORS.info
Please
FOLLOW and “LIKE US” on FACEBOOK.com/HagenFN
Please Read our Blog @ http://HagenFinancialNetwork.blogspot.com
Please Follow our Tweets on Twitter.com/SafeLeif
Check out this: http://www.MedicareForSeniors.info
* This newsletter was
prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with
the named broker/dealer.
* The Standard & Poor's
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be
representative of the stock
market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* The Standard & Poor’s
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect
fees,
expenses, or sales charges.
Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The 10-year Treasury Note
represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the
U.S.
Government is seen as a
risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for
the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the
afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The gold price is set twice
daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in
U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity
Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the
commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19
physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT
Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity
subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated
by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the
source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific
periods.
* Opinions expressed are
subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or
to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set
forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that
strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not
guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly
in an index.
* Consult your financial
professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves
risk including loss of principal.
* To unsubscribe from the
“Peek of the Week”, please reply to this email with “Unsubscribe” in the
subject line, or write us at: Hagen Financial Network, Inc. 4640 Nicols Road,
Suite 203; Eagan, MN 55122.
Sources:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/dollar-rallies-on-strong-u-s-jobs-data-1446818202 (or go to http://peakclassic.peakadvisoralliance.com/app/webroot/custom/editor/11-09-15_WSJ-Dollar_Gains_to_Nearly_13-Year_High-Footnote_2.pdf)
http://www.barrons.com/articles/job-numbers-add-up-to-december-rate-hike-1446875952?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns (or go to http://peakclassic.peakadvisoralliance.com/app/webroot/custom/editor/11-09-15_Barrons-Job_Numbers_Add_Up_to_December_Rate_Hike-Footnote_3.pdf)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-steady-ahead-of-jobs-data-1446800711 (or
go to http://peakclassic.peakadvisoralliance.com/app/webroot/custom/editor/11-09-15_WSJ-Stock_Investors_Position_for_Rate_Increase_After_Strong_Jobs_Report-Footnote_5.pdf)
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiehopkins/2015/11/04/the-state-of-file-and-suspend-where-the-new-social-security-rules-leave-seniors/ (or go to http://peakclassic.peakadvisoralliance.com/app/webroot/custom/editor/11-09-15_Forbes-The_State_of_File_and_Suspend-Footnote_10.pdf)
