PEEK OF THE WEEK
March 28, 2016
The Markets
Are corporations in the
United States struggling?
In its cover article last
week, The Economist (a British
publication), suggested there is not enough competition among American
companies. It pointed out:
“Aggregate
domestic profits are at near-record levels relative to GDP… High
profits might be a sign of brilliant innovations or wise long-term investments
were it not for the fact that they are also suspiciously persistent. A very
profitable American firm has an 80 percent chance of being that way 10 years
later. In the 1990s the odds were only about 50 percent.”
At the end of last week, U.S.
headlines indicated concern about declining corporate profits:
- Consumers prop up U.S. economy, but profits under pressure
- U.S. Fourth-Quarter GDP Revised Up to 1.4% Growth but Corporate Profits Fall
- Corporate profits fall in 2015 for first time since Great Recession
- U.S. Corporate Profits Fall 8.1% in 4th Quarter
So, are U.S. companies
experiencing record profits or are they in trouble?
Last week’s press release
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis
indicated corporate profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments) declined from the third quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of
2015; hence, the headlines.
However, a one-quarter
decline doesn’t provide a complete picture of the health of corporate America.
As CFO.com pointed out, over the full
year, corporate profits were up 3.3 percent year-to-year.
Trading Economics offered additional context. From 1950 through 2015, U.S. corporate
profits averaged about $395 billion annually. Profits hit a record low for that
period, $14 billion, during the first quarter of 1951. Profits rose to an
all-time high of about $1.64 trillion during the third quarter of 2014.
Fourth quarter’s profits of
$1.38 trillion remain well above that average.
If you could live
anywhere, where would you live? If cities are your cup of tea, then here is some good
news. The 2016 Worldwide Cost of Living
Report compares the prices of 160 products and services – from food and
drink to domestic care and private schools – in cities around the world. It
found the cost-of-living in many cities fell during 2015 thanks to lower
commodity prices, weakening currencies, and geopolitical unrest.
Be warned: a lower cost-of-living doesn’t mean a city
offers good value. Take Zurich, for instance. Remember the uproar when the Swiss
unpegged their currency early in 2015? The Swiss franc realized double-digit
gains, the Swiss stock market swooned, and the Swiss people went shopping in
neighboring countries. Well, the cost of living in Zurich fell from September
2014 to September 2015, but the decline wasn’t proportionate to declines
elsewhere in Europe, and Zurich currently reigns as Europe’s most expensive
city.
In September 2015, the most and least expensive cities
in the world were:
Most expensive:
- Republic of Singapore
- Zurich, Switzerland
- Hong Kong, China
- Geneva, Switzerland
- Paris, France
- Chennai, India
- Karachi, Pakistan
- Mumbai, India
- Bangalore, India
- Lusaka, Gambia
Cities in the United States didn’t fare well, either.
A strong U.S. dollar helped push all 16 of the U.S. cities that were in the
survey up at least 15 places. New York and Los Angeles both rank among the 10
most expensive cities in the world.
Weekly Focus –
Think About It
“The first step in the
evolution of ethics is a sense of solidarity with other human beings.”
--Albert
Schweitzer, Winner of the Nobel Peace Prize
Best
regards,
Leif M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen,
CLU, ChFC
CLU, ChFC
LP Financial Advisor
Securities offered through LPL Financial Inc.,
Member
FINRA/SIPC.
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* This newsletter was
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Sources:
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21695392-big-firms-united-states-have-never-had-it-so-good-time-more-competition-problem (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-28-16_TheEconomist-The_Problem_with_Profits-Footnote_1.pdf)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-fourth-quarter-gdp-revised-up-corporate-profits-fall-1458909252 (see
Headline)
http://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=WCOL2016 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-28-16_TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit-Worldwide_Cost_of_Living_Report_2016-Footnote_8.pdf)
http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2015/01/currencies (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-28-16_TheEconomist-Going_Cuckoo_for_the_Swiss-Footnote_9.pdf)
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21640366-swiss-are-feeling-shocked-and-discombobulated-their-central-bank-shaken-not-stirred (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-28-16_TheEconomist-Shaken_not_Stirred-Footnote_10.pdf)
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/03/daily-chart-4 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-28-16_TheEconomist-Worldwide_Cost_of_Living_Survey-Footnote_11.pdf)
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