Hagen Financial Network, Inc.: Long-term care insurance

Showing posts with label Long-term care insurance. Show all posts

Monday, April 11, 2016

Are you in need of professional advice?

www.HagenFN.com

651-209-6350

Monday, February 01, 2016

What does it mean for the market when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) dived into the negative interest rate rabbit hole?

Peek of the Week

February 1, 2016

The Markets

How low can you go?

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) dove into the negative interest rate rabbit hole last week when it dropped its benchmark interest rate to minus 0.1 percent. If you’ve been following Japan’s story, then you know the country has been struggling with deflation for almost two decades. The BOJ’s goal is to push inflation up to 2 percent. MarketWatch explained the idea behind negative interest rates:

“Central banks use their deposit to influence how banks handle their reserves. In the case of negative rates, central banks want to dissuade lenders from parking cash with them. The hope is that they will use that money to lend to individuals and businesses which, in turn, will spend the money and boost the economy and contribute to inflation.”

If the idea of negative interest rates sounds familiar, it’s probably because Europe has been delving into negative interest rate territory for a while. Several European central banks have adopted negative interest rate strategies, and about one-third of the bonds issued by governments in the eurozone offered negative yields at the end of 2015. It’s an unusual state of affairs – offering investors bonds that pay less than nothing. If investors hold to maturity, they get back less than their investment amount.

While negative rates may not be pleasing to bond buyers, U.S. stock markets were thrilled by the BOJ’s surprise rate cut. Major indices rose by about 2 percent on Friday.

Market performance was also boosted by a bad-news-is-good-news interpretation of weak fourth quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates. According to Reuters, slower growth in the U.S. economy raised investors’ hopes the Federal Reserve would hold back on future rate hikes.

Data as of 1/29/16	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)	1.8%	-5.1%	-4.0%	8.8%	8.6%	4.2%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.	2.2	-7.0	-13.6	-3.8	-2.6	-0.7
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)	1.9	NA	1.8	2.0	3.4	4.5
Gold (per ounce)	1.4	4.7	-12.4	-12.6	-3.5	7.0
Bloomberg Commodity Index	2.6	-1.7	-21.8	-18.2	-14.0	-7.8
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index	1.1	-3.4	-8.2	7.5	10.1	6.3

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Does the stock market overreact? Some experts say it does. In 1985, Werner DeBondt, currently a professor of finance at DePaul University, and Richard Thaler, currently a professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago, published an article titled, Does The Stock Market Overreact?

The professors were among the first economists to study behavioral finance, which explores the ways in which psychology explains investors’ behavior. Classic economic theory assumes all people make rational decisions all the time and always act in ways that optimize their benefits. Behavioral finance recognizes people don’t always act in rational ways, and it tries to explain how irrational behavior affects markets.

DeBondt and Thaler’s research, which has been explored and disputed over the years, supported the idea that markets tend to overreact to “unexpected and dramatic news and events.” The pair found people tend to give too much weight to new information. As a result, stock markets often are buffeted by bouts of optimism and bouts of pessimism, which push stock prices higher or lower than they deserve to be.

In a recent memo, Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks reiterated his long-held opinion, “…In order to be successful, an investor has to understand not just finance, accounting, and economics, but also psychology.” He makes a good point.

When markets become volatile, it’s a good idea to remember the words of Benjamin Graham, author of The Intelligent Investor, who wrote, “By developing your discipline and courage, you can refuse to let other people’s mood swings govern your financial destiny. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.”

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Keep your eyes on the stars, and your feet on the ground.”

--Theodore Roosevelt, 26^th President of the United States

Best regards,

Leif M. Hagen

Leif M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC

LP Financial Advisor

Securities offered through LPL Financial Inc.,

Member FINRA/SIPC.

www.FINRA.com

www.SIPC.com

P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues.

If you would like us to add them to our list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

P.S.S. Also, please remind your friends and family members becoming Medicare eligible that we offer Medicare insurance and Part D options with NO COST to work with Leif as their agent

For more information and resources visit our website at www.HagenFN.com

For Medicare supplement and part D information and resources, please visit MEDICAREforSENIORS.info

https://www.bluecrossmn.com/distribution/shopping/anonymous.html?producerToken=-z67o5fzk3mu4nb2solwzb34c0i15u6shro4wuum8cpns3rj50cqjqj8pznw2g&profile=ifp#welcome

Please FOLLOW and “LIKE US” on FACEBOOK.com/HagenFN

Please Read our Blog @ http://HagenFinancialNetwork.blogspot.com

Please Follow our Tweets on Twitter.com/SafeLeif

Check out this: http://www.MedicareForSeniors.info

* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be

representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees,

expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S.

Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.

The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* You cannot invest directly in an index.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

* To unsubscribe from the “Peek of the Week”, please reply to this email with “Unsubscribe” in the subject line, or write us at: Hagen Financial Network, Inc. 4640 Nicols Road, Suite 203; Eagan, MN 55122.

Sources:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-bank-of-japan-and-negative-interest-rates-2016-01-29

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-21137148

http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/negative-interest-rates

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKCN0V71PB

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x/full

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rational-choice-theory.asp

http://iosrjournals.org/iosr-jbm/papers/Vol16-issue4/Version-5/D016452532.pdf

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/on-the-couch.pdf?sfvrsn=4

http://www.stride.ws/blog/20-brilliant-quotes-and-insights-from-benjamin-grahams-the-intelligent-investor

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/t/theodorero136001.html

Monday, December 21, 2015

Who's policies sent the country into recession in the early 80's? That and more in today's PEEK fo the WEEK from Hagen Financial

Peek of the Week

December 21, 2015

The Markets

After a level of hype that would have exhausted even the most dedicated Star Wars fans, the Federal Reserve finally began to tighten monetary policy last week, raising the funds rate from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent.

Although financial markets appeared sanguine when the rate hike was announced, the calm dissipated quickly. The Standard & Poor’s 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and NASDAQ indices finished the week lower. International markets fared better. Most finished the week higher.

The last five times the Fed has begun to raise rates, the U.S. dollar has remained stable and stock prices have risen, on average, in the months immediately following the hike, according to The Economist.

While tightening monetary policy (and talk of tightening monetary policy) often affects financial markets immediately, economic change happens at a more measured pace. The Economist explained:

“The impact of changes in interest rates is not usually felt on announcement…The response of the real economy also comes with a delay. Most reckon it takes time for monetary policy to shift spending habits, and one rate rise is more an easing of the accelerator than a U-turn. Unemployment continued to fall in each of the past five tightening episodes. That will probably happen again...The most uncertain variable is inflation. This fell rapidly following rate rises in 1983 and 1988 as the Fed established its hawkish credentials. Yet in 2016, the most likely direction for inflation is up (the rate rise is aimed at restraining its ascent).”

Another factor affecting the U.S. and global economies is the price of oil. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported oil prices declined to a new six-year low. Falling oil prices have contributed to deflationary pressures in Europe, stunting the region’s economic recovery. They have had a mixed affect on the U.S. economy, helping consumers and hurting the energy industry.

Data as of 12/18/15	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)	-0.3%	-2.6%	-2.7%	11.5%	10.0%	4.8%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.	0.4	-8.0	-7.6	-0.4	-0.8	0.5
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)	2.2	NA	2.2	1.8	3.4	4.4
Gold (per ounce)	-0.9	-11.4	-11.4	-14.4	-5.1	7.6
Bloomberg Commodity Index	-1.2	-25.8	-28.6	-18.0	-13.2	-7.8
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index	1.6	0.6	0.8	10.3	11.9	7.2

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Second guessing the fed is an age old American pasttime. Americans have been speculating about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy choices – rate hikes, rate declines, quantitative easing, etc. – for a long time. It’s clear when you take a look at a few modern Fed Chairs and the Fed’s activities under their leadership.

Paul Volcker (1979-1987) took over an economic quagmire known as The Great Inflation. In the early 1980s, U.S. inflation was 14 percent and unemployment reached 9.7 percent. Volcker unexpectedly raised the Fed funds rate by 4 percent in a single month, following a secret and unscheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting. His policies initially sent the country into recession. The St. Louis Fed reported "Wanted" posters targeted Volcker for "killing" so many small businesses. By the mid-1980s, employment and inflation reached targeted levels.

Alan Greenspan (1987-2006) was in charge through two U.S. recessions, the Asian financial crisis, and the September 11 terrorist attacks. Regardless, he oversaw the country’s longest peacetime expansion. In the late 1990s, when financial markets were bubbly, critics suggested, “…Mr. Greenspan’s monetary policies spawned an era of booms and busts, culminating in the 2008 financial crisis.”

Ben Bernanke (2006-2014) took the helm of the Fed just before the financial crisis and Great Recession. When economic growth collapsed in 2007, the Fed lowered rates and adopted unconventional monetary policy (quantitative easing) in an effort to stimulate economic growth. In 2012, economist Paul Krugman called Bernanke out in The New York Times, “…the fact is that the Fed isn’t doing the job many economists expected it to do, and a result is mass suffering for American workers.”

Janet Yellen (2014-present) is the current Chairwoman of the Fed. Under Yellen’s leadership, after providing abundant guidance, the Fed raised rates for the first time in seven years. The International Business Times reported several prominent economists think the increase was premature, in part, because there are few signs of inflation in the U.S. economy.

In many cases, it’s difficult to gauge the achievements and/or failures of a leader – Fed Chairperson, President, Congressman, or Congresswoman – until the economic or political dust settles. Sometimes, that’s long after they’ve left office.