PEEK OF THE WEEK
September 17, 2018
Leif Hagen & Donna Roberts
The Markets
All
investors are consumers, but not all consumers are investors.
The
September installment of University of
Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey reported Americans are feeling pretty
optimistic. Consumer sentiment rose to the second highest level since 2004, and
consumer expectations reached the highest level since 2004. Surveys of Consumers chief economist,
Richard Curtin, wrote:
“Consumers
anticipated continued growth in the economy that would produce more jobs and an
even lower unemployment rate during the year ahead…The largest problem cited on
the economic horizon involved the anticipated negative impact from tariffs.
Concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on the domestic economy were
spontaneously mentioned by nearly one-third of all consumers in the past three
months, up from one-in-five in the prior four months.”
Investors
weren’t as optimistic, according to the American
Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Last week, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey reported
bullish sentiment dropped more than 10 percentage points. The results were:
·
Bullish 32.1 percent of respondents
(historic average: 38.5 percent)
·
Neutral 35.1 percent of
respondents (historic average: 31.0 percent)
·
Bearish 32.8 percent of respondents
(historic average: 30.5 percent)
Despite
the apparent shift in investor attitudes, stock markets moved higher last week.
Vito J. Racanelli of Barron’s wrote:
“The
stock market radiated confidence this past week, finishing about 1 percent
higher despite choppy action. There was a plethora of good economic news – from
lower-than-expected inflation to sky-high business and consumer confidence
numbers – that drove shares up. Not even a ratcheting up of tough tariff talk
Friday on the part of the U.S. could dampen investor enthusiasm for long.”
Some
believe the AAII Sentiment Survey is a contrarian indicator. Last week, that
may have been the case.
Data as of 9/14/18
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard
& Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
1.2%
|
8.7%
|
16.4%
|
14.2%
|
11.3%
|
9.3%
|
|
Dow
Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
1.4
|
-6.8
|
-2.3
|
5.9
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
|
10-year
Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
3.0
|
NA
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.9
|
3.5
|
|
Gold
(per ounce)
|
0.3
|
-7.3
|
-9.3
|
2.9
|
-1.9
|
4.5
|
|
Bloomberg
Commodity Index
|
-3.3
|
-6.5
|
-3.1
|
-2.4
|
-8.6
|
-7.1
|
|
DJ
Equity All REIT Total Return Index
|
0.2
|
3.6
|
4.5
|
10.7
|
9.9
|
8.6
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US,
Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does
not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized;
the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and
the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury
Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time
periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s,
djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of
future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A
means not applicable.
wordies unite! The Merriam Webster Dictionary
added some new words during 2018. A favorite among fans of dictionaries is
‘wordie,’ which means ‘word lover’ and should not be confused with ‘wordy,’
which describes something with too many words. Dictionary newcomer ‘TL;DR’ (the
new word that means ‘too long; didn’t read’) could be used to describe a
reader’s response to something that’s wordy.
A few of the new additions are
descriptions of dog breeds, including:
·
Chiweenie: a cross between a Chihuahua and a
dachshund
·
Schnoodle: a cross between a schnauzer and a
poodle
·
Yorkie-poo: a cross between a Yorkshire terrier
and a poodle
A number of ‘wanderworts’ –
words that have wandered from one language into another – also made the list.
These include:
·
Harissa: spicy North African chili paste
·
Kabocha: a type of Japanese pumpkin
·
Kombucha: a fermented, bubbly tea drink
Many of the new entries are
abbreviated versions of longer words that have been part of our vocabulary for
a long time. This may be the inevitable outcome in a society that adapts to the
communication shorthand demanded by text, photo, and social media apps. See if
you can guess the longer version of these new words:
·
Adorbs
·
Avo
·
Bougie
·
Fave
·
Guac
·
Marg
·
Ribbie
·
Zuke
If you get stumped, give us a
call.
Weekly Focus – Think About
It
“Language is the road map of a
culture. It tells you where its people come from and where they are going.”
--Rita Mae Brown, American author
Best
Regards,
Leif M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC
LP Financial Advisor
Securities offered through LPL Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary
to family, friends, or colleagues.
P.S.S. Also,
please remind your friends and family members becoming Medicare eligible that
we offer Medicare insurance and Part D options with NO COST to work with Leif as
their agent
For more information and resources visit our website at www.HagenFN.com
For more information and resources visit our website at www.HagenFN.com
For Medicare supplement and part D information and
resources, please visit MEDICAREforSENIORS.info
Please FOLLOW and “LIKE US” on FACEBOOK.com/HagenFN
Please Read our Blog @ http://HagenFinancialNetwork.blogspot.com
Please Follow our Tweets on Twitter.com/SafeLeif
Check out this: http://www.MedicareForSeniors.info
* This newsletter was
prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with
the named broker/dealer.
* The Standard & Poor's
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be
representative of the stock
market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* The Standard & Poor’s
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect
fees,
expenses, or sales charges.
Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The 10-year Treasury Note
represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the
U.S.
Government is seen as a
risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for
the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the
afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The gold price is set twice
daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in
U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity
Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the
commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19
physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT
Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity
subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated
by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the
source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific
periods.
* Opinions expressed are
subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or
to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set
forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that
strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not
guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly
in an index.
* Consult your financial
professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves
risk including loss of principal.
* To unsubscribe from the
“Peek of the Week”, please reply to this email with “Unsubscribe” in the
subject line, or write us at: Hagen Financial Network, Inc. 4640 Nicols Road,
Suite 203; Eagan, MN 55122.
Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-dow-gains-238-points-tariffs-be-damned-1536973652?mod=hp_highlight_6
(or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/09-17-18_Barrons-The_Dow_Gains_238_Points-Tariffs_be_Damned-Footnote_3.pdf)
The Markets
All
investors are consumers, but not all consumers are investors.
The
September installment of University of
Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey reported Americans are feeling pretty
optimistic. Consumer sentiment rose to the second highest level since 2004, and
consumer expectations reached the highest level since 2004. Surveys of Consumers chief economist,
Richard Curtin, wrote:
“Consumers
anticipated continued growth in the economy that would produce more jobs and an
even lower unemployment rate during the year ahead…The largest problem cited on
the economic horizon involved the anticipated negative impact from tariffs.
Concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on the domestic economy were
spontaneously mentioned by nearly one-third of all consumers in the past three
months, up from one-in-five in the prior four months.”
Investors
weren’t as optimistic, according to the American
Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Last week, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey reported
bullish sentiment dropped more than 10 percentage points. The results were:
·
Bullish 32.1 percent of respondents
(historic average: 38.5 percent)
·
Neutral 35.1 percent of
respondents (historic average: 31.0 percent)
·
Bearish 32.8 percent of respondents
(historic average: 30.5 percent)
Despite
the apparent shift in investor attitudes, stock markets moved higher last week.
Vito J. Racanelli of Barron’s wrote:
“The
stock market radiated confidence this past week, finishing about 1 percent
higher despite choppy action. There was a plethora of good economic news – from
lower-than-expected inflation to sky-high business and consumer confidence
numbers – that drove shares up. Not even a ratcheting up of tough tariff talk
Friday on the part of the U.S. could dampen investor enthusiasm for long.”
Some
believe the AAII Sentiment Survey is a contrarian indicator. Last week, that
may have been the case.
Data as of 9/14/18
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard
& Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
1.2%
|
8.7%
|
16.4%
|
14.2%
|
11.3%
|
9.3%
|
|
Dow
Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
1.4
|
-6.8
|
-2.3
|
5.9
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
|
10-year
Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
3.0
|
NA
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.9
|
3.5
|
|
Gold
(per ounce)
|
0.3
|
-7.3
|
-9.3
|
2.9
|
-1.9
|
4.5
|
|
Bloomberg
Commodity Index
|
-3.3
|
-6.5
|
-3.1
|
-2.4
|
-8.6
|
-7.1
|
|
DJ
Equity All REIT Total Return Index
|
0.2
|
3.6
|
4.5
|
10.7
|
9.9
|
8.6
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US,
Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does
not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized;
the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and
the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury
Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time
periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s,
djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of
future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A
means not applicable.
wordies unite! The Merriam Webster Dictionary
added some new words during 2018. A favorite among fans of dictionaries is
‘wordie,’ which means ‘word lover’ and should not be confused with ‘wordy,’
which describes something with too many words. Dictionary newcomer ‘TL;DR’ (the
new word that means ‘too long; didn’t read’) could be used to describe a
reader’s response to something that’s wordy.
A few of the new additions are
descriptions of dog breeds, including:
·
Chiweenie: a cross between a Chihuahua and a
dachshund
·
Schnoodle: a cross between a schnauzer and a
poodle
·
Yorkie-poo: a cross between a Yorkshire terrier
and a poodle
A number of ‘wanderworts’ –
words that have wandered from one language into another – also made the list.
These include:
·
Harissa: spicy North African chili paste
·
Kabocha: a type of Japanese pumpkin
·
Kombucha: a fermented, bubbly tea drink
Many of the new entries are
abbreviated versions of longer words that have been part of our vocabulary for
a long time. This may be the inevitable outcome in a society that adapts to the
communication shorthand demanded by text, photo, and social media apps. See if
you can guess the longer version of these new words:
·
Adorbs
·
Avo
·
Bougie
·
Fave
·
Guac
·
Marg
·
Ribbie
·
Zuke
If you get stumped, give us a
call.
Weekly Focus – Think About
It
“Language is the road map of a
culture. It tells you where its people come from and where they are going.”
--Rita Mae Brown, American author
Best
Regards,
Leif M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC
LP Financial Advisor
Securities offered through LPL Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary
to family, friends, or colleagues.
P.S.S. Also,
please remind your friends and family members becoming Medicare eligible that
we offer Medicare insurance and Part D options with NO COST to work with Leif as
their agent
For more information and resources visit our website at www.HagenFN.com
For more information and resources visit our website at www.HagenFN.com
For Medicare supplement and part D information and
resources, please visit MEDICAREforSENIORS.info
Please FOLLOW and “LIKE US” on FACEBOOK.com/HagenFN
Please Read our Blog @ http://HagenFinancialNetwork.blogspot.com
Please Follow our Tweets on Twitter.com/SafeLeif
Check out this: http://www.MedicareForSeniors.info
* This newsletter was
prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with
the named broker/dealer.
* The Standard & Poor's
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be
representative of the stock
market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* The Standard & Poor’s
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect
fees,
expenses, or sales charges.
Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The 10-year Treasury Note
represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the
U.S.
Government is seen as a
risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for
the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the
afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The gold price is set twice
daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in
U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity
Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the
commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19
physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT
Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity
subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated
by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the
source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific
periods.
* Opinions expressed are
subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or
to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set
forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that
strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not
guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly
in an index.
* Consult your financial
professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves
risk including loss of principal.
* To unsubscribe from the
“Peek of the Week”, please reply to this email with “Unsubscribe” in the
subject line, or write us at: Hagen Financial Network, Inc. 4640 Nicols Road,
Suite 203; Eagan, MN 55122.
Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-dow-gains-238-points-tariffs-be-damned-1536973652?mod=hp_highlight_6
(or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/09-17-18_Barrons-The_Dow_Gains_238_Points-Tariffs_be_Damned-Footnote_3.pdf)
