“Peek of the Week”
Market Commentary
February 4, 2019
The Markets
And,
U.S. stock markets celebrated.
Last
week, the Federal Reserve put itself on hold. The Federal Open Market Committee
met on Wednesday, January 30, 2019, to discuss the state of the economy and
determine policy. After the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered a positive
assessment of U.S. economic strength that was leavened with a few concerns.
“We
continue to expect that the American economy will grow at a solid pace in 2019,
although likely slower than the very strong pace of 2018…Despite this positive
outlook…Growth has slowed in some major foreign economies, particularly China
and Europe. There is elevated uncertainty around several unresolved government
policy issues, including Brexit, ongoing trade negotiations, and the effects
from the partial government shutdown in the United States…We are now facing a
somewhat contradictory picture of generally strong U.S. macroeconomic
performance, alongside growing evidence of cross-currents. At such times,
common sense risk management suggests patiently awaiting greater clarity…”
The
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) welcomed the news and delivered
its best January performance since 1987, reported Reuters.
Earnings
may have helped. Through the end of last week, almost one-half of companies in
the S&P 500 had shared fourth quarter 2018 earnings. FactSet reported the blended year-over-year earnings growth – which
includes earnings for companies that have reported and earnings estimates for
companies that have not yet reported – was 12.4 percent. That’s lower than the
20-plus percent growth companies have delivered since late 2017, and it’s the
fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
There
was good news to close the week, too. The Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported far more jobs were created in January than
analysts had anticipated, although unemployment ticked higher for the month
because of the government shutdown, reported Bloomberg.
Data as of
2/1/19
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
1.6%
|
8.0%
|
-4.1%
|
11.8%
|
9.2%
|
12.6%
|
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
1.1
|
7.1
|
-14.8
|
6.7
|
1.3
|
6.2
|
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
2.7
|
NA
|
2.8
|
2.0
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
1.9
|
2.9
|
-1.7
|
5.4
|
0.9
|
3.7
|
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
-0.1
|
5.5
|
-9.9
|
2.2
|
-8.5
|
-3.0
|
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total
Return Index
|
2.9
|
10.9
|
11.6
|
9.2
|
10.3
|
15.6
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg
Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a
dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ
Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the
three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury
Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time
periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com,
London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not
applicable.
here they are: Some of The best
inventions of 2018. Time Magazine
asked its editors and correspondents to nominate inventions that are making the
world smarter and more fun. The magazine whittled down the suggestions to 50
inventions it considers to be the very best. They include:
- Off-the-rack bespoke clothing. If you have ever found yourself between two sizes or have had difficulty figuring out women’s swimsuit sizing, you’ll appreciate an innovation offered by a Japanese retailer. All you have to do is put on one of the company’s “…stretchy black bodysuits…covered in white dots, which enables consumers to make a ‘3-D scan’ of their bodies in the comfort of their own home, via a companion mobile app.” Once you’ve completed the scan, you can order custom-fit clothing. Next up: custom shoes.
- Blankets that ease anxiety. Science suggests there is a connection between insomnia and anxiety – and we all know how important sleep is. Weighted blankets offer gentle pressure that may help soothe the nervous system and improve sleep, according to Time. Retailers suggest consumers opt for blankets with a weigh equal to 10 percent of body weight. Be forewarned. The blankets come with a hefty price tag.
- A gravity-defying toolbox. If you’re looking for the perfect Valentine’s gift for a friend or family member who uses tools in tough environments, this might be a good choice. A former F-16 aircraft mechanic designed a flexible toolbox that stays on curved surfaces without slipping.
- A compass that points to friends and family. If you stress over the possibility of a child or pet getting lost at a crowded event or in an unfamiliar place, you may appreciate these paired compasses. They use GPS technology, in tandem with long-wave radio frequencies, to help people keep track of each other.
Just
for fun, check out the other inventions at Time.com.
Weekly Focus – Think About
It
“The
fact is that my brain goes out to play. That’s what creativity is – intelligence
having fun.”
--Joey
Reiman, American businessman
Best regards,
Leif M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC
LPL Financial Advisor
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Securities
offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
*
These views are those of Carson Coaching, and not the presenting Representative
or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as
investment advice.
*
This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not
affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
*
Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to
the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a
fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
*
Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally
offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk
as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price,
yield, maturity, and redemption features.
*
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities
considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot
invest directly in this index.
*
All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect
fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the
performance of any investment.
*
The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market
capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the
Index.
*
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to
the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower,
investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond
market.
*
Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion
Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing
Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy
ounce.
*
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified
benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures
contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
*
The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance
of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry
as calculated by Dow Jones.
*
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an
index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors
of The Wall Street Journal.
*
The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ
system.
*
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and
political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks
are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
*
Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index
between two specific periods.
*
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as
investment advice or to predict future performance.
*
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no
guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
*
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk,
including loss of principal.
*
You cannot invest directly in an index.
*
Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has
been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee
it is accurate or complete.
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There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or
outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect
against market risk.
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