PEEK OF THE WEEK
December 12, 2016
Leif Hagen & Donna Roberts
The
Markets
Dad: “Fra-gee-lay” …it must be
Italian!
Mom: I think that says
“fragile,” honey.
Dad: Oh, yeah.
This holiday season, investors’
enthusiasm for U.S. stocks has rivaled old man Parker’s passion for his
major-award leg lamp in ‘A Christmas Story.’ Last week, three major U.S.
indices hit all-time highs.
Barron’s reported consumer confidence is helping make this the most
wonderful time of the year for U.S. stock markets. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 98 in
December, reflecting a surge in consumer confidence. It was the highest reading
since January 2015 and is closing in on the highest level since 2004. Surveys
of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, wrote:
“The most important implication of
the increase in optimism is that it has raised expectations for the performance
of the economy. President-elect Trump must provide early evidence of positive
economic growth as well as act to keep positive consumer expectations aligned
with performance. Either too slow growth or too high expectations represent
barriers to maintaining high levels of consumer confidence.”
In his December Investment Outlook, Bill Gross cautioned while many
aspects of Trump's agenda – tax cuts, deregulation, fiscal stimulus – are good
for stocks over the near term, investors should keep an eye on the longer term,
as protectionist policies could restrict trade and, together with a strong
dollar, could hurt corporate profits.
European stocks also moved
higher last week after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a taper.
Quantitative easing will continue through 2017, but ECB purchases will fall
each month beginning in April.
Data as of 12/9/16
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard & Poor's 500
(Domestic Stocks)
|
3.1%
|
10.6%
|
10.4%
|
7.7%
|
12.5%
|
4.8%
|
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
2.7
|
2.0
|
2.1
|
-2.8
|
2.7
|
-1.1
|
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield
Only)
|
2.5
|
NA
|
2.2
|
2.9
|
2.1
|
4.5
|
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
-0.8
|
9.5
|
7.6
|
-2.0
|
-7.4
|
6.4
|
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
1.3
|
12.2
|
11.2
|
-11.2
|
-9.2
|
-6.3
|
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total
Return Index
|
3.8
|
7.7
|
10.8
|
12.1
|
12.6
|
4.8
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg
Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend)
and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All
REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-,
five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is
simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time
periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com,
London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not
applicable.
divorced? you may
want to investigate spousal benefits. If you weren’t the top wage
earner in your marriage, or your job was raising the children, then Social
Security’s spousal benefit could prove advantageous. It provides the
lower-earning spouse with 50 percent of the higher-earning spouse’s benefit at
full retirement age, even if you’re no longer married. AARP.org explained:
“Social Security operates with a
philosophy that a divorced person may deserve a personal benefit, having been
the long-term partner and helpmate of a member of the workforce. The benefit is
similar, in fact, to the spousal benefit that is available to a person who is
still married.”
To qualify, you do have to answer
‘yes’ to a significant list of requirements:
•
You were married for at least 10 years
•
You are unmarried now
•
You are age 62 or older
•
Your ex-spouse is entitled to Social Security
benefits
•
The benefit you qualify to receive, based on
your work, is less than the benefit your ex-spouse qualifies to receive
There are other factors that
could affect your application for spousal benefits, including whether your
ex-spouse has begun taking benefits. If you would like to learn more, contact
your financial professional or visit www.ssa.gov.
Weekly
Focus – Think About It
“My mission in life is not
merely to survive, but to thrive; and to do so with some passion, some
compassion, some humor, and some style.”
--Maya Angelou, American
poet
Warm regards from Eagan,
Leif M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC
LP Financial Advisor
Securities offered through LPL Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary
to family, friends, or colleagues.
P.S.S. Also,
please remind your friends and family members becoming Medicare eligible that
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* This newsletter was
prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with
the named broker/dealer.
* The Standard & Poor's
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be
representative of the stock
market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* The Standard & Poor’s
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect
fees,
expenses, or sales charges.
Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The 10-year Treasury Note
represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the
U.S.
Government is seen as a
risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for
the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the
afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The gold price is set twice
daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in
U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity
Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the
commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19
physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT
Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity
subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated
by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the
source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific
periods.
* Opinions expressed are
subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or
to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set
forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that
strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not
guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly
in an index.
* Consult your financial
professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves
risk including loss of principal.
* To unsubscribe from the
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Suite 203; Eagan, MN 55122.
Sources:
http://www.barrons.com/articles/can-low-rates-keep-lifting-the-stock-market-1468037259?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/07-11-16_Barrons-Can_Low_Rates_Keep_Lifting_the_Stock_Market-Footnote_1.pdf)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-government-bond-yields-rise-on-healthy-jobs-report-1467982581
(or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/07-11-16_WSJ-US_10-Year_Treasury_Yield_Settles_at_Record_Low-Footnote_3.pdf)
http://www.barrons.com/articles/dont-get-too-comfortable-with-stocks-1468037247?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns
(or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/07-11-16_Barrons-Dont_Get_Too_Comfortable_with_Stocks-Footnote_5.pdf)
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/07/daily-chart (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/07-11-16_TheEconomist-Interest_in_Moving_to_Canada_is_at_an_All-Time_High-Footnote_9.pdf)
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