“Peek of the Week”
Market Commentary
Market Commentary
September 30, 2019
The Markets
They
say bull markets climb a wall of worry.
Investopedia’s Will Kenton explained the idea like this:
“…a
bull market isn’t a peaceful place. When times are good, investors are constantly
tense, wondering how long they will keep rolling, fretting about when a
seemingly inevitable correction will finally put a stop to the market elation.
As a market continues ascending, the decision can become increasingly agonizing
whether to take profits in a position or let it ride.”
Last
week, the wall of worry gained a few feet.
The
University of Michigan Surveys of
Consumers indicated confidence improved in September, which appeared to be
positive news. However, the report suggested positive sentiment is eroding.
“More consumers reported unfavorable news about the economy in September than
in eight years since September 2011. While a good share of the news involved
tariffs and other economic policies, there were nearly as many reports on job
losses as job gains.”
Reports
the administration is considering ways to limit investment in China had
investors concerned about possible portfolio repercussions. The steps being
considered include regulating U.S. government pensions’ exposure to Chinese
stocks, regulating stock indices’ allocations to Chinese holdings, and
delisting Chinese shares from U.S. stock exchanges, reported Bloomberg.
The
Federal Reserve’s daily liquidity injections into the repurchase agreement
market, which underpins U.S. money markets, were a source of concern for some. The Economist reported, “Market-watchers
blamed the cash crunch on firms’ need to pay corporate-tax bills at the same
time as sucking up more new government debt than usual. But banks were aware of
these factors well ahead of time. Other, as yet poorly understood, forces
seemed to have provided the nudge that tipped repo markets into disarray.”
The
announcement of a Presidential impeachment inquiry was big news that had a relatively
small affect on U.S. stock markets last week.
Major
U.S. stock indices finished the week lower.
Data as of
9/27/19
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
-1.0%
|
18.2%
|
1.6%
|
11.1%
|
8.4%
|
10.8%
|
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
-1.2
|
9.2
|
-4.3
|
3.7
|
0.7
|
2.3
|
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
1.7
|
NA
|
3.1
|
1.6
|
2.5
|
3.3
|
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
-0.8
|
16.3
|
25.7
|
3.9
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
-1.1
|
2.1
|
-7.6
|
-2.4
|
-8.2
|
-4.5
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold,
Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not
pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and
the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each
of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com,
London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not
applicable.
bee
friendly. When people travel,
decisions about where to stay are determined by location, price, and amenities.
One valued perk is loyalty points. While there is no official valuation
assigned to reward points, estimates of value range from 0.3 cents to 1.6 cents
per point, according to UpgradedPoints.com.
Hotels
entice guests with other types of perks, too. These can be simple, like making
forgotten toiletries available at no cost or having coffee makers and bottled
water in rooms. As lodgings move up the luxury scale, amenities become more
sublime. Some luxury hotels offer:
·
All-you-can-eat
ice cream
·
In-room arcade
games
·
Yoga mats
·
Designer bath
salts
·
Fragrance butlers
·
Loaner Vespas
The
latest hotel buzz is bees.
Hotels
are hosting bee colonies. The Washington
Post reported:
“The
purpose of putting beehives atop the hotel is to support bee research and bring
attention to a larger issue: the importance of pollinators and the threats they
face…According to a 2016 Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services report, 75 percent of the world's food
crops – including almonds, avocados, chocolate, and coffee – are dependent on
pollination, and one of every three bites we eat is thanks to the work of
pollinators.”
Some
hotels collect the honey and infuse it into food, drinks, and skin care
products for guests.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Having
a superpower has nothing to do with the ability to fly or jump, or superhuman
strength. The truest superpowers are the ones we all possess: willpower,
integrity, and, most importantly, courage.”
--Jason Reynolds, American author and
poet
Best
regards,
Leif
M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen, CLU ChFC
LPL Financial Advisor
Leif M. Hagen, CLU ChFC
LPL Financial Advisor
P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary
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Securities
offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
*
These views are those of Carson Coaching, and not the presenting Representative
or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment
advice.
*
This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not
affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
*
Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to
the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a
fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
*
Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally
offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk
as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price,
yield, maturity, and redemption features.
*
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities
considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot
invest directly in this index.
*
All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect
fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance
of any investment.
*
The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market
capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the
Index.
*
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to
the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower,
investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond
market.
*
Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion
Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing
Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy
ounce.
*
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified
benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures
contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
*
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an
index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors
of The Wall Street Journal.
*
The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ
system.
*
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and
political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks
are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
*
Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index
between two specific periods.
*
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as
investment advice or to predict future performance.
*
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no
guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
*
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk,
including loss of principal.
*
You cannot invest directly in an index.
*
Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has
been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee
it is accurate or complete.
*
There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or
outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect
against market risk.
*
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
*
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
*
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Sources:
https://news.umich.edu/u-m-surveys-of-consumers-confidence-rebounds/ (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/09-30-19_UnivMichigan-U-M_Surveys_of_Consumers-Confidence_Rebounds-Footnote_2.pdf)
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/09/26/repo-market-ructions-were-a-reminder-of-the-financial-crisis (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/09-30-19_TheEconomist-Repo-Market_Ructions_Were_a_Reminder_of_the_Financial_Crisis-Footnote_5.pdf)
Photo by Patrick Pellegrini on Unsplash
