August 22, 2016
Leif Hagen and Donna Roberts
The Markets
Last week, Wall Street was speculating about monetary policy with
the enthusiasm of commentators trying to predict who will bring home Olympic
gold.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to introduce
another rate hike before the end of 2016, according to the BBC, and it has just three opportunities to deliver the goods –
during its September, November, or December meetings.
Analysts and pundits parsed minutes from July’s FOMC meeting
looking for clues about timing and found relatively few because there was no
consensus view at the July meeting. The BBC
wrote, “According to the minutes,
some FOMC members felt ‘economic conditions would soon warrant taking another
step,’ while others believed more data was needed.” The BBC also pointed out a hike in November was unlikely because of the
timing relative to the U.S. Presidential election.
The sooner-is-better camp inside the Fed has been quite vocal
recently. CNBC reported New York Fed
President William Dudley, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, and San
Francisco Fed President John Williams each made statements confirming solid
economic growth is expected during the second half of 2016, and indicating it’s
time to continue increasing interest rates in the United States.
Recently, the CME Fed Watch
tool (which looks at 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices to gauge the likelihood
of changes in Fed policy) put the probability of one-quarter to one-half
percentage point rate increase during September at 88 percent.
That may change this week after Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at
the Fed’s summer retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. She’s expected to provide
some indication of whether the Fed is ready to take action.
If you would like more information, just ‘friend’ the Fed. It now
has a Facebook page.
Data as of 8/19/16
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
Standard
& Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
0.0%
|
6.9%
|
5.0%
|
9.9%
|
14.2%
|
5.3%
|
Dow
Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
-0.4
|
3.8
|
-1.5
|
-0.3
|
2.5
|
0.0
|
10-year
Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
1.6
|
NA
|
2.1
|
2.9
|
2.1
|
4.8
|
Gold
(per ounce)
|
-0.4
|
26.8
|
19.6
|
-0.5
|
-6.1
|
8.0
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
2.6
|
9.8
|
-2.6
|
-12.8
|
-11.5
|
-6.7
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total
Return Index
|
-1.9
|
13.6
|
15.8
|
16.3
|
15.4
|
6.9
|
S&P
500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude
reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and
10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does
include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are
annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of
the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources:
Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past
performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot
be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
Public
Wi-Fi is remarkably convenient,
making it possible to connect your tablet, laptop,
phone, or other device in the middle of a national park, at a local bookstore
or café, or while waiting for a flight. Whenever you’re connecting in a public
venue, remember public Wi-Fi is not secure – even if you’re paying to access
it. Norton warned:
“…Wi-Fi uses radio
waves. The openness of these signals at public hotspots, combined with the
right eavesdropping software, can allow others to take information without your
knowledge – much like someone overhearing a private conversation in a crowded
restaurant. Don’t assume that a public Wi-Fi network is safe and secure simply
because it has a password. Remember, these passwords are shared, so anyone
nearby can easily hop onto the network and see what you’re doing.”
Protect yourself with
some dos and don’ts of free public Wi-Fi:
Do:
- Turn
‘sharing’ off.
Your computer
may be set to ‘share’ files and printers or allow remote login from other
computers. Make sure ‘sharing’ is turned off when you are on public Wi-Fi.
- Access
only public sites.
Check the weather or stock markets. Read the news or your favorite blogs.
Avoid sites that require you to login.
- Use
a virtual private network or VPN.
VPN software may allow you to route all of your activity through a
separate and secure private network even when using public Wi-Fi.
Don’t:
- Assume
a Wi-Fi option is legitimate. Cyber
criminals have been known to set-up connections with names that are
similar to the name of wireless offered by the café, hotel, etc. Talk with
an employee before accessing Wi-Fi to get the correct name and IP address.
- Access
password-protected websites.
When you’re on public Wi-Fi, do not log in to password protected email
accounts or social media sites; do not enter credit card information; and
do not engage in online banking.
Public Wi-Fi is wonderful
– as long as you understand the risks and protect your personal information.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I just
work hard and try my best every time I step up on those blocks. I'm very
goal-oriented. I've always set high goals for myself. When I was little I never
dreamed of going to the Olympics, but once I did I wanted to do my very best at
that level. Four years ago, when I was visualizing my final, I never envisaged
anything other than winning gold. Once I get to that level, I'm able to set the
goals for myself and go out and achieve them.”
--Katie
Ledecky, Olympic gold medalist
Warm regards from Eagan,
Leif M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC
LP Financial Advisor
Securities offered through LPL Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary
to family, friends, or colleagues.
P.S.S. Also,
please remind your friends and family members becoming Medicare eligible that
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their agent
For more information and resources visit our website at www.HagenFN.com
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* This newsletter was
prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with
the named broker/dealer.
* The Standard & Poor's
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be
representative of the stock
market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* The Standard & Poor’s
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect
fees,
expenses, or sales charges.
Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The 10-year Treasury Note
represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the
U.S.
Government is seen as a
risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for
the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the
afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The gold price is set twice
daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in
U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity
Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the
commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19
physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT
Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity
subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated
by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the
source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific
periods.
* Opinions expressed are
subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or
to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set
forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that
strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not
guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly
in an index.
* Consult your financial
professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves
risk including loss of principal.
* To unsubscribe from the
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Sources:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/08-22-16_CME_Group_FedWatch_Tool-Footnote_4.pdf)
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