“Peek of the Week”
Market Commentary
December 16, 2019
The Markets
So, what comes next?
Last week was a good week for
investors. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s explained:
“The
Federal Reserve and European Central Bank both pledged to do what they could to
underpin their respective economies. The United Kingdom gave Boris Johnson’s
Conservative Party a landslide victory, virtually guaranteeing that the Brexit
saga will end, finally.”
‘Get Brexit done’ was the
slogan of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s conservative party and British voters
confirmed that’s what they want. As a result, Parliament is likely to accept the
Prime Minister’s withdrawal agreement. Under current deadlines, the United
Kingdom will begin to transition out of the European Union (EU) at the end of
January, reported The Economist.
Prime Minister Johnson
promised to complete the transition by December 2020 despite skepticism about
whether trade agreements can be negotiated and ratified in such a short time. The
Economist reported, “…unless Mr. Johnson is ready to ask for an extension,
the risk of Britain leaving the EU with no trade deal in place at the end of
next year will be significant. The result would be high barriers to exports and
severe disruption to trade.”
There was another important
event last week. The United States government announced, “…a phase-one deal
with China had been completed and that negotiations on phase two would begin
immediately. Details were lacking, but it was surely good news,” reported Levisohn.
The Wall Street Journal reported the deal has been agreed to in principle,
although nothing has been signed, and neither the United States nor the Chinese
government released the text of the agreement or a detailed summary.
The information released
indicates the United States cancelled tariffs scheduled to take effect last
Sunday and reduced current tariffs on $120 million of Chinese goods. In return,
China agreed to increase purchases of agricultural goods over the next two
years. The agreement is scheduled to be signed in January.
Let’s hope they ink the deal!
Data as of
12/13/19
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard &
Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
0.7%
|
26.4%
|
19.6%
|
11.7%
|
9.8%
|
11.0%
|
|
Dow Jones Global
ex-U.S.
|
2.0
|
16.6
|
13.2
|
6.3
|
3.5
|
2.6
|
|
10-year Treasury
Note (Yield Only)
|
1.8
|
NA
|
2.9
|
2.5
|
2.1
|
3.6
|
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
0.5
|
14.4
|
18.0
|
8.2
|
3.9
|
2.7
|
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
1.5
|
3.5
|
-3.8
|
-3.3
|
-6.3
|
-5.1
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold,
Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not
pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and
the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each
of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com,
London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not
applicable.
life begins at
40. In
1932, psychologist Walter Pitkin published a self-help book called ‘Life Begins
at Forty.’ The Economist summarized his findings like this, “The theory
goes that years of hard work are rewarded with less stress and better pay;
children begin to fly the nest; and with luck, a decent period of good health
remains.”
At the time, the book was something of a revelation. After all,
throughout much of the 1800s, life expectancy at birth was about 40. When
Pitkin wrote his book, newborn Americans were expected to reach age 60, on
average.
It turns out Pitkin was on to something.
The Economist reviewed the findings of the 2019 World Happiness
Report, which uses data from the Gallup World Poll. It found people
in the United States and around the world generally are happy in their teens
and early 20s. By the time they reach their 30s, however, happiness levels have
dropped. People begin to recover a more positive state of mind at age 40. For
many, by age 70, self-reported happiness is higher than it was in their teens
and 20s.
There are differences in self-reported happiness from country to
country. For instance, happiness in former Soviet states tends to decline with
age. In addition, overall, self-reported happiness in India has declined during
the past several years.
So, who are happiest people in the world? American women age 70 and
older!
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I am still every age
that I have been. Because I was once a child, I am always a child. Because I
was once a searching adolescent, given to moods and ecstasies, these are still
part of me, and always will be…Far too many people misunderstand what ‘putting away
childish things’ means, and think that forgetting what it is like to think and
feel and touch and smell and taste and see and hear like a three-year-old or a
thirteen-year-old or a twenty-three-year-old means being grownup. When I’m with
these people I, like the kids, feel that if this is what it means to be a
grown-up, then I don’t ever want to be one. Instead of which, if I can retain a child’s awareness and joy, and
be fifty-one, then I will really learn what it means to be grownup.”
--Madeleine L’Engle, Author and poet
Best regards,
Leif
M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC
LPL Financial Advisor
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offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
*
These views are those of Carson Coaching, and not the presenting
Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment
Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
*
This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not
affiliated with the named firm.
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Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to
the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a
fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
*
Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally
offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk
as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price,
yield, maturity, and redemption features.
*
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities
considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot
invest directly in this index.
*
All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be
materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns
do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not
indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in
an index.
*
The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market
capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the
Index.
*
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to
the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower,
investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond
market.
*
Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion
Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing
Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy
ounce.
*
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified
benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures
contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
*
The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance
of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry
as calculated by Dow Jones.
*
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an
index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors
of The Wall Street Journal.
*
The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ
system.
*
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and
political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks
are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
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Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index
between two specific periods.
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Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as
investment advice or to predict future performance.
*
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no
guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk,
including loss of principal.
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it is accurate or complete.
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