PEEK OF THE WEEK
December 18, 2018
Leif Hagen & Donna Roberts
The Markets
Ouch!
It never feels good when the
stock market heads south, and that’s what happened last week. The Standard
& Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500), Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq
Composite all moved into correction territory, which means the indices have
fallen 10 percent or more from their previous peaks.
If you look at corporate
earnings, the decline in U.S. stock values may seem a bit of a head scratcher.
During the third quarter of 2018, almost four-fifths (78 percent) of companies
in the S&P 500 were more profitable than analysts expected, according to FactSet Insight. Earnings grew by 25.9 percent – the fastest growth rate
since 2010.
When you remember the stock
market is a leading indicator, the mystery is resolved. Share prices reflect
what investors expect will happen in the future, and third quarter earnings are
in the past.
So, what moved the market last
week? Investors’ concerns included slowing global economic growth. Dave
Shellock of Financial Times reported:
“World equities closed out the week
on a soft note as disappointing economic reports out of China and the eurozone
heightened concern over the outlook for global growth…the big focus was on
China, where activity and spending data confirmed that the country’s economy
had a dismal November.”
Monetary policy and geopolitical
issues, including the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown and ongoing
Brexit follies, contributed to investor pessimism. The American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey
showed a 17-point decline in bullish sentiment and an 18.4-point increase in
bearish sentiment.
When stock markets leave you
feeling like Santa dropped coal in your stocking, it may be helpful to remember
the words of Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when
others are fearful.”
Data as of 12/14/18
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
Standard & Poor's 500
(Domestic Stocks)
|
-1.3%
|
-2.8%
|
-2.0%
|
8.7%
|
7.8%
|
11.6%
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
-1.0
|
-15.1
|
-13.0
|
3.6
|
-0.3
|
4.7
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield
Only)
|
2.9
|
NA
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
2.9
|
2.5
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
-0.6
|
-4.7
|
-1.3
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
4.6
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
-2.7
|
-7.8
|
-3.1
|
1.4
|
-8.5
|
-3.2
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total
Return Index
|
-1.8
|
2.5
|
2.1
|
7.9
|
10.2
|
14.8
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg
Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a
dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ
Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the
three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury
Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time
periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com,
London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not
applicable.
when the holidays are just too much. Around
the holidays, it’s easy to become stressed and overwhelmed. Psychology Today offered some
suggestions that may help you stay merry and bright, no matter what the season
brings.
1.
Don’t
lose sight of what makes you happy. It’s easy to become obsessed with
everything being perfect. If you find yourself snapping because the shopper
next to you got the last one, the holiday light display is sagging, or the
table isn’t set just right, take a deep breath. True happiness often is found
in everyday routines and healthy relationships.
2.
Give
thanks for what you have. This seems like a natural corollary to point
number one. Instead of focusing on what’s not quite right, redirect your
thinking. Sure, your great aunt’s stories are inappropriate, and the mashed
potato incident wasn’t great, but there are some good moments, too. If you can,
find time to write down the things for which you are grateful to have in your
life. Then, review it as needed.
3.
Do nice
things for other people. Not everyone has a warm coat, much less a warm
home and a patience-trying holiday meal. Giving to others can help give meaning
to the season. You could donate to a favorite charity, help out at a food
pantry or a shelter, or visit elderly neighbors. One of the very best aspects
of giving is that it can make us happier.
4.
Embrace
experiences. If you want to have a memorable holiday, don’t buy lots of
gifts. Give experiences. Happiness research suggests, “…happiness is derived
from experiences, not things…when they are shared, experiences allow us to get
closer to others in a way impossible with inanimate objects that we can buy,”
reported Paul Ratner on BigThink.com.
Weekly Focus – Think About
It
“…in Racine, Wisconsin: The
Santa at [the mall] knows sign language. He signs with kids who are hearing
impaired, so that he can ask them – and they can tell him – what they want for
Christmas. Because the warm fuzzy feelings of the holidays don’t just come from
getting the right present – they come from feeling like part of a loving,
inclusive community.”
--MentalFloss.com
Best Regards,
Leif M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC
LP Financial Advisor
Securities offered through LPL Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
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* This newsletter was
prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with
the named broker/dealer.
* The Standard & Poor's
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be
representative of the stock
market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* The Standard & Poor’s
500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect
fees,
expenses, or sales charges.
Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The 10-year Treasury Note
represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the
U.S.
Government is seen as a risk-free
borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the
long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the
afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The gold price is set twice
daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in
U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity
Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the
commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19
physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT
Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity
subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated
by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the
source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific
periods.
* Opinions expressed are
subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or
to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set
forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that
strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not
guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly
in an index.
* Consult your financial
professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves
risk including loss of principal.
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Sources:
https://www.ft.com/content/cb5ddff4-ff45-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e
(or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/12-17-18_FinancialTimes-Stocks_Sink_as_Global_Growth_Worries_Intensify-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.ft.com/content/1d218d08-ffb5-11e8-aebf-99e208d3e521
(or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/12-17-18_FinancialTimes-Week_Ahead-Fed_BoE_US_Government_Shutdown-Footnote_6.pdf)