Tuesday, February 16, 2016

"Are markets suffering from excessive worry?" In Today's PEEK fo the WEEK financial Newsletter from Hagen Financial Network

Peek of the Week
February 16, 2016

 
 The Markets

Are markets suffering from excessive worry? 

Last week, markets headed south because investors were concerned about the possibility of negative interest rates in the United States – even though the U.S. Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy (i.e., they’ve been raising interest rates).

The worries appear to have taken root after the House Financial Services Committee asked Fed Chair Janet Yellen whether the Federal Reserve was opposed to reducing its target rate below zero should economic conditions warrant it (e.g., if the U.S. economy deteriorated in a significant way). Barron’s reported on the confab between the House and the Fed:

“Another, equally remote scenario also gave markets the willies last week: that the Federal Reserve could potentially push its key interest-rate targets below zero, as its central-bank counterparts in Europe and Japan already have. Not that anybody imagined it was on the agenda of the U.S. central bank, which, after all, had just embarked on raising short-term interest rates in December and marching to a different drummer than virtually all other central banks, which are in rate-cutting mode.”

Worried investors may want to consider insights offered by the Financial Times, which published an article in January titled, “Why global economic disaster is an unlikely event.” It discussed global risks, including inflation shocks, financial crises, and geopolitical upheaval and conflict while pointing out:

“The innovation-driven economy that emerged in the late 18th and 19th centuries and spread across the globe in the 20th and 21st just grows. That is the most important fact about it. It does not grow across the world at all evenly – far from it. It does not share its benefits among people at all equally – again, far from it. But it grows. It grew last year. Much the most plausible assumption is that it will grow again this year. The world economy will not grow forever. But it will only stop when…resource constraints offset innovation. We are certainly not there yet.”

Markets bounced at the end of the week when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated its members were ready to cut production. The news pushed oil prices about 12 percent higher and alleviated one worry – for now.



Data as of 2/12/16
1-Week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
-0.8%
-8.8%
-10.7%
7.1%
7.0%
4.0%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
-4.6
-12.2
-19.9
-5.4
-4.0
-1.0
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
1.8
NA
2.0
2.0
3.6
4.6
Gold (per ounce)
7.8
16.7
1.4
-9.0
-1.9
8.5
Bloomberg Commodity Index
-0.2
-4.0
-26.8
-18.5
-14.1
-7.4
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index
-4.1
-9.5
-11.7
5.1
8.2
5.6
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Capital has been leaving china…When Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified before the House Financial Services Committee last week, she made no bones about the fact the Fed is keeping an eye on economic developments in China and evaluating the ways in which changing circumstances in the country, including currency devaluation, could affect global growth and the U.S. economy.

Yellen is not the only one worried about currency devaluation in China. The New York Times reported Chinese companies and wealthy citizens have been pulling money out of the country because they’re worried the purchasing power of their savings will decline significantly if the government further devalues the renminbi. Some have been using renminbi to invest in real estate abroad, buy overseas businesses, or pay off dollar-denominated debt.

Others have been avoiding China’s capital controls, which are measures designed to regulate flows from capital markets, by engaging in ‘smurfing.’ The New York Times described the practice of smurfing this way, “…Individuals are asking friends or family members to carry or transfer out $50,000 apiece, the annual legal limit in China. A group of 100 people can move $5 million overseas.”

According to the Institute of International Finance, cited by CNBC:

“The 2015 outflows largely reflected efforts by Chinese corporates to reduce dollar exposure after years of heavy dollar borrowing as expectations of persistent renminbi appreciation were replaced by rising concerns about a weakening currency.”

During the final six months of 2015, capital flowed out of China at a rate of about one trillion U.S. dollars annualized, according to The Economist.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment.”
--Buddha, Religious leader

Best regards,

Leif  M. Hagen
Leif  M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC                                                                       
LP Financial Advisor

Securities offered through LPL Financial Inc.,
Member FINRA/SIPC.


P.S.S. Also, please remind your friends and family members becoming Medicare eligible that we offer Medicare insurance and Part D options with NO COST to work with Leif as their agent

For more information and resources visit our website at www.HagenFN.com

For Medicare supplement and part D information and resources, please visit MEDICAREforSENIORS.info



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* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be
representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees,
expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S.
Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* To unsubscribe from the “Peek of the Week”, please reply to this email with “Unsubscribe” in the subject line, or write us at: Hagen Financial Network, Inc. 4640 Nicols Road, Suite 203; Eagan, MN 55122.

Sources:


#financialadvisorEaganMN #financialplannerEaganMN #wealthmanagementEaganMN

Monday, February 15, 2016

Monday, February 08, 2016

Like Cinderella at the ball...Read about that and more in today's PEEK of the WEEK financial news

Peek of the Week

February 8, 2016
 The Markets

There was bad news and good news in last Friday’s unemployment report.

In the negative column, fewer jobs were created in the United States than economists had predicted, and January’s jobs gains were not as strong as December’s had been. In addition, the December jobs increase was revised downward from 292,000 to 252,000, according to Barron’s.

On the positive side of the ledger, more than 150,000 new jobs were added in January. The unemployment rate fell below 5 percent for the first time since February of 2008 and earnings increased. In total, average hourly earnings have moved 2.5 percent higher during the past 12 months.

Good news plus bad news equals uncertainty. As we’ve seen, that’s a state of affairs markets strongly dislike. In January, slower growth in China and low oil prices had markets in a tizzy. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gave back more than 3 percent as investors tried to decide whether employment news indicated a rising risk of recession in the United States, according to Barron’s.

When investors are emotional and markets are volatile, it can be helpful to remember the words of Ben Graham, author of The Intelligent Investor, who believed a company’s intrinsic value should be measured by its operating performance rather than its share value. Warren Buffett shared Graham’s thoughts on ‘Mr. Market’ in a 1987 shareholder letter. In part, it cautions:

“…Like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence.”

So, how are companies performing? It depends on which you own but, during the current quarterly earnings season, most companies have reported earnings that exceed expectations. That’s not something that tends to happen during recessions, according to Barron’s.



Data as of 2/5/16
1-Week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
-3.1%
-8.0%
-8.9%
7.6%
7.3%
4.0%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
-1.1
-8.0
-16.1
-4.0
-3.2
-0.8
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
1.9
NA
1.8
2.0
3.6
4.6
Gold (per ounce)
3.5
8.3
-8.7
-11.8
-3.1
7.3
Bloomberg Commodity Index
-2.1
-3.8
-26.2
-19.1
-14.2
-7.8
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index
-2.4
-5.7
-10.0
7.1
9.4
6.1
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

setting an example for future generations... Do your children or grandchildren spend summers mowing lawns, repairing computers, or selling movie tickets? Perhaps, they have part-time jobs during the school year, bagging groceries, or working in a local shop. No matter the type of work done, if a young person has earned income, he or she can save in a Roth IRA.

While saving for retirement probably isn’t even a blip on the radar for most young people, their older relatives are aware of the challenges related to saving for and generating income in retirement. Many also understand the importance of starting early – a task that has been made easier by custodial Roth IRAs. It is now possible to establish Roth IRAs for children who are younger than age 18, as long as they have earned income.

Communicating the importance of saving for retirement (and other goals) to younger family members is important, especially when the 2015 Employee Benefit Research Institute’s Retirement Confidence Survey found about 39 percent of working Americans are not currently saving for retirement. Since actions often speak louder than words, a Time.com reporter offered this suggestion:

“Most kids will not have the ability or discipline to fund the account through their earnings. But adults can reward their hard work by contributing on their behalf. This demonstrates the value of saving…The additional saving is all the more important for young people, who will have fewer sources of guaranteed lifetime income in their retirement years.”

Money Chimp’s compounding calculator suggests a one-time $5,000 investment, earning 6 percent a year on average, would be worth more than $178,000 in 60 years. That could become tax-free income for a child or grandchild’s retirement if the investment was in a Roth IRA. Please keep in mind, this is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific situation.  Your results will vary.  The hypothetical 6% return used is not guaranteed and does not reflect the deduction of fees and charges inherent to investing.

Of course, one attractive aspect of a Roth IRA account is the assets also can be used, penalty-free, for college tuition or the purchase of a first home, as long as certain requirements are met (including the account having been open for at least five years). About the Roth IRA – The Roth IRA offers tax deferral on any earnings in the account.  Withdrawals from the account may be tax free, as long as they are considered qualified.  Limitations and restrictions may apply.  Withdrawals prior to age 59 ½ or prior to the account being opened for 5 years, whichever is later, may result in a 10% IRS penalty tax.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies.”
--Groucho Marx, American comedian


Best regards,
Leif  M. Hagen
Leif  M. Hagen, CLU, ChFC                                                                       
LP Financial Advisor

Securities offered through LPL Financial Inc.,
Member FINRA/SIPC.

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

P.S.S. Also, please remind your friends and family members becoming Medicare eligible that we offer Medicare insurance and Part D options with NO COST to work with Leif as their agent

For more information and resources visit our website at www.HagenFN.com

For Medicare supplement and part D information and resources, please visit MEDICAREforSENIORS.info



Please FOLLOW and “LIKE US” on FACEBOOK.com/HagenFN


Please Follow our Tweets on Twitter.com/SafeLeif

                                                                                               
* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be
representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees,
expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S.
Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* To unsubscribe from the “Peek of the Week”, please reply to this email with “Unsubscribe” in the subject line, or write us at: Hagen Financial Network, Inc. 4640 Nicols Road, Suite 203; Eagan, MN 55122.

Sources:


Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Why is the Federal Reserve So Controversial?

Why is the Federal Reserve So Controversial?

The world’s first central bank offered unprecedented convenience. It gave 17th century Swedes the option to pay with paper notes rather than 40-pound copper plates, which were the currency units of the Swedish empire at the time. Historically, it may have been one of the few actions taken by a central bank that has been relatively uncontroversial.1

It seems as though central banking in the United States always has been hotly debated. Early in our nation’s history, there was tremendous disagreement about whether a central bank was necessary or even constitutional. In fact, disagreement on the subject led to political divisions with President George Washington’s administration and the formation of the Federalist and the Democratic-Republican parties.2

Today, the debate has expanded. There are still some who argue the Fed should be abolished and others who say it is critical to our country’s economic health. However, the extraordinary monetary policies adopted by the Fed in recent years have raised questions about its goals, governance, and accountability.3

The First Bank of the United States, and the Second
Alexander Hamilton, the first Treasury Secretary, believed the newly formed United States needed a central bank to help stabilize the country’s currency and retire debt from the Revolutionary War. He envisioned the bank as “a profit-making institution, with private shareholders holding four-fifths of its stock and electing four-fifths of its directors.”2

Despite its private ownership, the bank would be a repository for federal funds and act on behalf of the government in financial matters.2 The idea provoked serious debate:1

“What was it drove our forefathers to this country?” said James “Left Eye” Jackson, a fiery little congressman from Georgia. “Was it not the ecclesiastical corporations and perpetual monopolies of England and Scotland? Shall we suffer the same evils to exist in this country?...What is the general welfare? Is it the welfare of Philadelphia, New York, and Boston?”

In fact, Humanities Magazine reported banking, currency, and finance were topics that inspired violent political debate during the late 18th and early 19th century. Thomas Jefferson and James Madison were among those who opposed a central bank; however, in 1791, Congress granted the Bank of the United States a 20-year charter.2

When the bank’s charter came up for renewal in 1811, Madison was President and Congress decided not to extend it. Critics said the bank was too conservative, which was holding back economic growth. Also, there were concerns British interests held two-thirds of its stock.4

A close call with bankruptcy during the War of 1812, when there was no central bank to provide funding, led President Madison to change his mind about the value of a central bank. He endorsed the Second Bank of the United States, which was established in 1816. It was structured similarly to the first bank and served the same function until 1832 when President Andrew Jackson refused to extend its charter.2

The Federal Reserve System
The Federal Reserve System – a decentralized central bank – was signed in to law in 1913 and began operations in 1914. It was a response to decades of bank panics and failures.5 Neil Irwin described it like this in his book, The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire:1

“Without a central, government-backed bank able to create money on demand, the American banking system wasn’t able to provide it. The system wasn’t elastic, meaning there was no way for its supply of money to adjust with demand. People would try to withdraw more money from one bank than it had available, the bank would fail, and then people from other banks would withdraw their funds, creating a vicious cycle that would lead to widespread bank failures and the contraction of lending across the economy. The result was economic depression. It happened every few years. One particularly severe panic in 1873 was so bad that until the 1930s, the 1870s was the decade known as the “Great Depression.””

Today, the Fed is deeply ingrained in the economic fabric of the United States. It is tasked with conducting the nation's monetary policy by influencing money and credit conditions in pursuit of full employment and stable prices, supervising and regulating banks, protecting the credit rights of consumers, maintaining the stability of the financial system, and providing certain financial services to the U.S. government.6

The Fed and its leaders are often a source of controversy. While the vast majority of Fed Chairmen and Chairwomen have been experts in the fields of public policy, finance, and economics, many have made controversial decisions about how to influence the U.S. economy. While many of the Fed’s decisions have proved effective, not all have proved sound.7 The most notable Fed failure was the Great Depression (1930s) when the Fed’s monetary policies – pushing rates higher and making less cash available – caused a downturn to become a depression.8

Fortunately, economists have learned a fair amount since then. In modern times, Fed leaders have established a more successful, but no less controversial, record. For example:

Paul Volcker (1979-1987) took over during the early 1980s, when U.S. inflation was 14 percent and unemployment reached 9.7 percent. Volcker unexpectedly raised the Fed funds rate by 4 percent in a single month, following a secret and unscheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting. His policies initially sent the country into recession. The St. Louis Fed reported "Wanted" posters targeted Volcker for "killing" so many small businesses. By the mid-1980s, employment and inflation reached targeted levels.9, 10

Alan Greenspan (1987-2006) was in charge through two U.S. recessions, the Asian financial crisis, and the September 11 terrorist attacks.11 Regardless, he oversaw the country’s longest peacetime expansion. In the late 1990s, when financial markets were bubbly, critics suggested, “…Mr. Greenspan’s monetary policies spawned an era of booms and busts, culminating in the 2008 financial crisis.”10

Ben Bernanke (2006-2014) took the helm of the Fed just before the financial crisis and Great Recession. When economic growth collapsed in 2007, the Fed lowered rates and adopted unconventional monetary policy (quantitative easing) in an effort to stimulate economic growth.10 In 2012, economist Paul Krugman called Bernanke out in The New York Times, “…The fact is that the Fed isn’t doing the job many economists expected it to do, and a result is mass suffering for American workers.”12

Janet Yellen (2014-Present) is the current Chairwoman of the Fed. Under Yellen’s leadership, after providing abundant guidance, the Fed raised rates for the first time in seven years. The International Business Times reported several prominent economists think the increase was premature, in part, because there are few signs of inflation in the U.S. economy.13

We won’t know whether Bernanke and Yellen have made the right choices for many years, possibly even decades. In the meantime, it seems quite likely the Fed will remain a controversial institution.
  
Sources:
1 Book by Neil Irwin: The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire (Introduction and Chapter 3)

Securities offered through LPL Financial , Member FINRA/SIPC.

This material was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.


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