- U.S. stocks: 72 percent bullish / 28 percent bearish
- European stocks: 66 percent bullish / 34 percent bearish
- Emerging markets stocks: 53 percent bullish / 47 percent bearish
- Japanese stocks: 30 percent bullish / 70 percent bearish
- Chinese stocks: 29 percent bullish / 71 percent bearish
- Greater optimism
- Enhanced mental health
- Improved attention spans
- Stronger immune systems
Peek of the Week
April 25, 2016
The Markets
U.S. stock markets finished last week in heady territory.
The Dow
Jones Industrial Average closed at 18,003. Its all-time closing high is
18,312. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was less than 1 percent below its
intraday trading record, which was set last year.
Despite
strong stock market performance, optimism was in short supply.
Barron’s latest Big Money poll showed money
managers are less bullish than they were last fall. Just 38 percent were
bullish or very bullish about the prospects for stocks in coming months, 46
percent were neutral, and 16 percent were bearish. Their outlook varied by
market. Overall, they were most enthusiastic about the United States,
European, and emerging markets:
The American Association of
Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey reported, when compared to money
managers, investors are less neutral (43 percent) and more bearish (24
percent) about what may happen during the next six months.
Current
levels of pessimism might have inspired Sir John Templeton, a renowned
contrarian investor. He once said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow
on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”
|
Data as of 4/22/16
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard
& Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
0.5%
|
2.3%
|
-0.8%
|
10.2%
|
9.4%
|
4.8%
|
|
Dow
Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
1.0
|
1.7
|
-11.8
|
-0.3
|
-1.8
|
-0.5
|
|
10-year
Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
1.9
|
NA
|
2.0
|
1.7
|
3.4
|
5.0
|
|
Gold
(per ounce)
|
1.3
|
17.0
|
4.5
|
-4.4
|
-3.7
|
7.2
|
|
Bloomberg
Commodity Index
|
3.3
|
5.7
|
-17.5
|
-14.1
|
-13.8
|
-7.3
|
|
DJ
Equity All REIT Total Return Index
|
-1.7
|
4.2
|
5.1
|
7.8
|
10.6
|
6.7
|
S&P
500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude
reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and
10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does
include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are
annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of
the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources:
Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past
performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and
cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
On average, Americans spend 91 percent of their time indoors or in a vehicle. Just 7 to 8 percent of their time is spent outside. These were the findings of The National Human Activity Pattern Survey (NHAPS) which measures variation in human exposure to pollutants.
The
findings do not bode well for Americans’ health because levels of pollution
indoors are a lot higher than those outside and can cause serious health
issues. They also are notable because researchers believe being outside has
positive health effects:
“Research
published in the Journal of Aging Health
shows that getting outside on a daily basis may help older people stay healthy
and functioning longer. Participants in the study who spent time outdoors
every day at age 70 showed fewer complaints of aching bones or sleep problems,
among other health-related problems, at age 77 than those who did not head
outside each day.”
Being
outside is thought to have benefits for people of all ages. These may include:
Rearranging
time budgets to include more outdoor activities could improve financial
outcomes, too, since healthcare costs are a concern for many families, and
these costs often increase as people age. The Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported, on average, Americans spent about $53,500
in 2014. Almost $4,300 – about 8 percent – was spent on healthcare.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Everybody
needs beauty as well as bread, places to play in and pray in, where nature may
heal and give strength to body and soul.”
--John Muir, American
environmentalist and author
Best regards,
Leif M. Hagen
Leif M. Hagen, CLU,
ChFC
LP Financial Advisor
Securities
offered through LPL Financial Inc.,
Member
FINRA/SIPC.
P.S.
Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or
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P.S.S. Also, please remind your friends and
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* These
views are those of Peak Advisor Alliance, and not the presenting
Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be
construed as investment advice.
* This
newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not
affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
*
Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as
to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity,
offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not
guaranteed and will fluctuate.
*
Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally
offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk
as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price,
yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The
Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities
considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot
invest directly in this index.
* The
Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index
returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is
not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow
Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market
capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the
Index.
* The
10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to
the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower,
investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond
market.
* Gold
represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market
Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing
Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy
ounce.
* The
Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified
benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures
contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ
Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of
the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as
calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo!
Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between
two specific periods.
*
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended
as investment advice or to predict future performance.
*
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no
guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past
performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk,
including loss of principal.
* You
cannot invest directly in an index.
* Consult
your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock
investing involves risk including loss of principal.
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Sources:
http://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-tops-18-000-just-short-of-all-time-high-1461387030?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-25-16_Barrons-Dow_Tops_18000_Just_Short_of_All-Time_High-Footnote_1.pdf)
http://www.barrons.com/articles/barrons-big-money-poll-the-pros-turn-cautious-1461387009?mod=trending_now_4 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-25-16_Barrons-Barrons_Big_Money_Poll-The_Pros_Turn_Cautious-Footnote_3.pdf)
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